Monday, November 2, 2026

Midwest

OH, MI, IN, IL, WI, MN, IA, MO, ND, SD, NE, KS

Late edition · compiled 1:30 PM Central

YellowRegional levelUnchanged from yesterday

A strong Plains storm brings possible severe storms to eastern Kansas and western Missouri Monday afternoon and night and soaking rain to Minnesota and the Dakotas, then moves into Illinois and the Mississippi Valley on Election Day. Two Halloween-weekend shootings, near Illinois Wesleyan University and in downtown Bloomington, Indiana, killed one and wounded 14; drought and measles continue.

Drops to Green if Monday night's storms stay scattered and the rain eases drought without flooding.Goes Orange if Monday night's storms form a damaging wind line with tornadoes or cause outages that reach polling places Tuesday.

This threat level is the 0400 Report's own assessment, not an official government alert, warning or declaration. For official alerts where you live, follow your local emergency officials and the National Weather Service. How we set it

Regions rate local conditions. Nationwide issues, like fuel prices, set the US level.

SITREP What changed in this region

ongoingWeather

Severe storms possible Monday in Kansas and Missouri; rain for Election Day

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) rates severe-storm risk on a 1-to-5 scale. Its 10:06 a.m. Central update has an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) over south-central Kansas, with damaging wind the main threat plus a few tornadoes and some hail, and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for parts of southeast and eastern Kansas and western Missouri. NWS Wichita expects storms to form about 3 to 6 p.m. and move into southeast Kansas in the evening; KSHB expects storms in Kansas City from afternoon through the night, with severe risk fading after 2 a.m. NWS Twin Cities expects 1 to 2 inches of rain, locally near 3 in west-central Minnesota, with low clouds at MSP through Tuesday. NWS Chicago expects showers and a few storms Tuesday afternoon and evening with gusts near 35 mph.

Storm Prediction Center: Day 1 outlook (issued 11:59 p.m. CST Nov 1)NWS Wichita: area forecast discussion (Nov 1)KSHB 41: stormy start to the workweek in Kansas City (Nov 2)NWS Twin Cities: area forecast discussion (Nov 1)NWS Chicago: area forecast discussion (Nov 1)Storm Prediction Center: Day 1 convective outlook (Nov 2, 10:06 a.m. CST update)

newSafety

Weekend shootings near Illinois Wesleyan and in Bloomington, Indiana

Bloomington, Illinois, police said a 19-year-old woman was killed and 7 people were injured at about 1:23 a.m. Sunday at a party on East Division Street near Illinois Wesleyan University. Police have made no arrests and have no suspect information, but said there is no ongoing threat; a news conference was set for 11:30 a.m. Monday. In Bloomington, Indiana, 7 people were shot on Kirkwood Avenue at about 1:30 a.m. Sunday, all in stable condition; police arrested an 18-year-old seen running with a gun on preliminary allegations of unlawful gun possession and resisting law enforcement, and have not determined whether he fired. The Bloomingtonian and WSBT reported the man is from Indianapolis, has not been said to be the shooter, and that at least two guns appear to have been used.

WGLT: 1 killed, 7 injured in shooting near Illinois Wesleyan (Nov 1)NBC Chicago: Illinois Wesleyan shooting, what we know (Nov 2)WRTV: 7 injured in downtown Bloomington shooting, 18-year-old arrested (Nov 1)AP via ABC News: mass shootings over Halloween weekend (Nov 1)The Bloomingtonian: Kirkwood shooting victims stable; man arrested (Nov 1)WSBT: 18-year-old arrested after shooting injures at least seven in Bloomington

ongoingWater

Drought in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and the northern Great Lakes

The Oct. 27 U.S. Drought Monitor shows extreme to exceptional drought (D3-D4, the top two steps of the 5-step D0 to D4 scale) over much of central and southern Missouri, with dryness worsening into Illinois and Indiana and drought expanding in the northern Great Lakes. This week's storm is the first broad rain in weeks for many of these areas; WBAY expects 0.5 to 1.5 inches around Green Bay through Wednesday.

U.S. Drought Monitor: national drought summary (Oct 27 map)WBAY: showers Monday, wet weather through Wednesday (Nov 2)

ongoingHealth

Measles still spreading in Wisconsin and Ohio

CIDRAP reported Oct. 29 that Wisconsin has 392 measles cases in 2026, 82 of them new that week and mostly tied to an outbreak in southwestern counties, and Ohio has 296.

CIDRAP: US measles cases top 4,800 (Oct 29)

Regional board Tap a line for detail

Power & utilities

watch

No significant outages or grid alerts were found.

No significant outages or grid alerts were found. Damaging gusts in Monday night's Kansas and Missouri storms and gusts near 35 mph in Illinois Tuesday could cause scattered outages.

Storm Prediction Center: Day 1 outlook (issued 11:59 p.m. CST Nov 1)NWS Chicago: area forecast discussion (Nov 1)

Weather & hazards

elevated

Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of severe storms over south-central Kansas and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) in southeast and eastern Kansas and western Missouri, mainly damaging winds with a few tornadoes possible. Heavy rain in Minnesota and the Dakotas Monday, with showers lingering through Wednesday. Showers and a few storms reach Illinois on Election Day afternoon and evening.

Storm Prediction Center: Day 1 outlook (issued 11:59 p.m. CST Nov 1)NWS Wichita: area forecast discussion (Nov 1)NWS Twin Cities: area forecast discussion (Nov 1)NWS Chicago: area forecast discussion (Nov 1)Storm Prediction Center: Day 1 convective outlook

Travel & transport

watch

Low clouds and rain at MSP through Tuesday could slow flights, and evening storms may disrupt travel around Wichita and Kansas City Monday.

Low clouds and rain at MSP through Tuesday could slow flights, and evening storms may disrupt travel around Wichita and Kansas City Monday. No major rail, port or airport disruptions were found. Fuel is not notably different from the national average.

NWS Twin Cities: area forecast discussion (Nov 1)KSHB 41: stormy start to the workweek in Kansas City (Nov 2)

Health, water & safety

elevated

A shooting near Illinois Wesleyan University killed a 19-year-old and injured 7, with no arrests; a downtown Bloomington, Indiana, shooting wounded 7 and an 18-year-old was arrested.

A shooting near Illinois Wesleyan University killed a 19-year-old and injured 7, with no arrests; a downtown Bloomington, Indiana, shooting wounded 7 and an 18-year-old was arrested. Extreme to exceptional drought covers much of Missouri. Measles outbreaks continue in Wisconsin and Ohio. In Kansas City, Mo., police said four shooting incidents Friday night into Saturday left seven people shot, two fatally, and, with Mayor Lucas, refuted viral posts claiming far more violence and a 911 outage.

WGLT: 1 killed, 7 injured in shooting near Illinois Wesleyan (Nov 1)WRTV: 7 injured in downtown Bloomington shooting, 18-year-old arrested (Nov 1)U.S. Drought Monitor: national drought summary (Oct 27 map)CIDRAP: US measles cases top 4,800 (Oct 29)KCTV5: Police, Mayor Lucas refute false online claims of mass violence on Halloween (Nov 1-2)

Elsewhere Other regions and the world

NortheastYellow ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC Two Halloween-night shootings in Delaware left a 17-year-old dead and 14 people wounded; the Ellendale shooter has not been caught, and the University of Delaware cancelled Monday classes. SoutheastYellow VA, WV, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, TN, KY A Learjet crash near Greenacres in Palm Beach County killed all 9 people aboard on Sunday; about 600 nearby residents are being relocated and part of Military Trail is closed indefinitely, and the NTSB said Monday there is some evidence the jet was breaking up before impact; no cause has been determined. South CentralYellow TX, OK, LA, AR A line of storms is expected to cross Oklahoma and North Texas this evening and overnight, with damaging winds the main threat and a brief tornado possible, according to NWS Fort Worth. Mountain WestOrange MT, ID, WY, CO, UT, NV, AZ, NM Weekend flooding forced evacuations in at least a dozen counties across Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico, plus parts of southeast Utah, with record crests on some Arizona rivers and a man found dead in Flagstaff floodwaters. PacificGreen WA, OR, CA, AK, HI The main item is the possible strike by about 250 port security watchmen at Los Angeles and Long Beach, with talks extended to 5 p.m. WorldOrange Global, as it affects Americans The Iran war is still the world story that reaches American households most directly, but the past day leaned toward diplomacy: Iranian negotiators left Doha on Nov 1 with a draft proposal circulating, and Brent fell about 4% to 7% Monday, to roughly $105-109 a barrel depending on the hour (Reuters, AP).

National stories, like fuel prices and overseas conflict, are on the US page.

Get it before sunrise

Join the free daily email: the threat level, the SITREP and every region, in your inbox by 0400 Central. We're launching soon, and everyone who signs up now gets the very first issue. Short, free, and no crying wolf.